3. Reliability Modeling and Prediction

The task of satellite reliability modeling is to model the system behavior (fault logic) under various mission conditions (mission profile changes, system structure changes, etc.) based on reliability parameters (such as reliability) and system characteristics (such as repairable or non-repairable, static or dynamic), and to express it in the form of graphics and/or mathematical relations or simulation logic. The task of satellite reliability prediction is to estimate the value of the satellite reliability index using the system reliability model and unit product reliability prediction. The combination of reliability modeling and reliability prediction can provide a sufficient basis for reliability analysis work and reliability design improvement, which is of great significance in the process of navigation satellite preliminary design and detailed design. This is accomplished by accurately and truly describing the reliability relationship of the system and obtaining the analysis results.